Concern, optimism felt by bankers over loans

Bank risk managers appear to be a bit more optimistic about the economy than they were 10 months ago, but most still expect mortgage and home equity loan delinquencies to stay the same or rise in the near term, according to a recent survey.

The Professional Risk Managers’ International Association surveyed 216 bankers on behalf of Fair Isaac Corp. in February to get their predictions on how consumer and business loan delinquencies, interest rates and credit requests would fare over the ensuing six months.

The survey found a continuing concern about the level of home equity and mortgage delinquencies but a bit more optimism about other types of loans and credit.

Although about 81% of those surveyed said that they expected mortgage and home equity delinquencies to stay the same or rise, compared with the previous quarterly survey, more anticipated improvement.

About equal numbers of bankers said that credit card and small-business-loan delinquencies would rise, fall or stay the same.

In terms of auto loans, 75% said that they expected delinquencies to fall or stay flat, and 85% said that student loan delinquencies would rise or remain the same.

Expectations were generally a bit more optimistic than last year.  

During the fourth quarter, delinquency rates fell on most consumer loan categories, according to the American Bankers Association Consumer Credit Delinquency Bulletin, released last Tuesday.

Bank card accounts that were 30 days or more overdue dropped 36 basis points to 3.28% of all accounts — the lowest level in almost a decade. Housing loans were the worst performers, but delinquencies in those categories largely held steady. Delinquencies in other loan categories fell.

The news was largely the result of lower unemployment, said James Chessen, the ABA’s chief economist.