An immodest economic proposal: Smart streets

Some of the explanations for why the current economic downturn is more severe than other post-war recessions — and has so surprised the experts — may lie in the theories of long-dead Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff.

Some of the explanations for why the current economic downturn is more severe than other post-war recessions — and has so surprised the experts — may lie in the theories of long-dead Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff.
Without going into a Dr. Zhivago-length explanation of his views, Mr. Kondratieff believed that capitalism goes through long phases of boom and bust, probably related to the adoption and eventual exhaustion of major technologies that drive the economy. Those key technology drivers usually involve advances in transportation that enable us to move about less expensively and more rapidly.
In the 19th century, after canal-building activity slowed, the nation embarked on a massive investment in railroads (funded largely by Great Britain, by the way). Railroads changed the face of America, powering the economy for about 80 years — more or less the duration of Mr. Kondratieff’s theorized “long wave.”
Since the end of World War I, the engine of 20th century prosperity has been a massive investment in highways. From the original federal routes in the 1920s, through the turnpikes of the 1940s and the interstates of the 1950s and 1960s, highways transformed American land use, reshaped commerce and led to the rise of suburbia and exurbia.
I believe that the current slump, with all the problems in Detroit, home building and retailing, signals that our economy’s highway-based engine has conked out for good. I believe it’s time for the next wave of transportation improvement and investment — and it won’t come from hybrids, battery-powered cars or even from the current automobile industry.
Here’s my probably crazy idea for the next transportation revolution/economic driver: smart streets.
Smart streets would have some kind of magnetic or electric power source built in so that future “cars” can tap into power without pedestrians electrocuting or magnetizing themselves as they cross the surface. These new kinds of cars or trucks or buses would be lightweight vehicles unencumbered by having to provide their own power through engines. (Think of updated trolleys without overhead or underground wiring or tracks.)
With power and wi-fi Internet access embedded in the street, tomorrow’s vehicles would be computer-controlled engineless carriers that could be air-conditioned and heated as desired (which battery-powered cars may never be able to deliver) and programmed so as to eliminate accidents and traffic jams. The cost to power the new vehicles could be based on mileage and time of use, so that someone driving the smart streets during peak hours, for example, would pay a multiple of driving at, say, 3 a.m.
Since most of the country is urban or suburban, we wouldn’t have to grid the entire nation at once. Cars intended for rural use could still have small gasoline/hybrid engines that would work on the grid when in urban areas.
Currently, the government estimates that we use two-thirds of our oil in transportation. Smart streets would rely on centrally generated electricity, which could drastically reduce oil consumption and our dependence on foreign sources. Over time, smart streets also would change land use, development patterns and countless other aspects of our lives. One small example: Think of how many urban parking lots could be put to more productive use if cars could be sent back home automatically for storage during the day after dropping off their occupants at work.
I don’t know whether the technology for smart streets currently exists. If considerable research and development are needed to develop the concept, a substantial investment would be required. Retrofitting streets and roads would be expensive, too. But much of this could be privately financed. Private investors could bid for streets or municipalities could give them away to stimulate business, much as the federal government gave away land in the 19th century to the railroads. Network usage would generate revenue for those who invested.
Both railroads and highways required massive investments, yet generated economic growth and prosperity for decades. If we are thinking of massive public works projects that could have tremendous payback, smart streets could be the smart driver for the 21st century.