One-in-four chance US will hit debt ceiling X-date

The odds of passing the X-date without an increase in the debt is around 25% and rising, according to JPMorgan.

There’s a roughly one-in-four chance that the United States will hit the so-called X-date — at which the U.S. government runs out of cash — without a deal to raise the debt limit, and the odds are getting worse, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“We still think the most likely outcome is a deal signed into law before the X-date, though we see the odds of passing that date without an increase in the ceiling at around 25% and rising,” JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Wednesday in a note to clients.

“In this latter scenario, we think there is a very high likelihood Treasury would prioritize principal and interest payments,” he wrote. “While doing so would avoid a technical default, there would still be several adverse effects, including a likely downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.”

A potential deal including cuts to federal government spending could reduce U.S. gross domestic product by 0.1% to 0.5% in 2024, depending on the details, JPMorgan’s Feroli said.

According to a popular economic model for monetary policy known as the Taylor rule, that would suggest the Federal Reserve needs to make one fewer quarter-point interest-rate hike in order to bring inflation down, he said.

[More: Financial advisors tune out debt ceiling hysteria]