Bitcoin headed for a bad week as ETF demand slides

JPMorgan says cryptocurrency appears overbought.

Bitcoin has peeled back more than 10% from its all-time high as the appetite for fledgling spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds moderates. JPMorgan Chase and Co. strategists warned the retreat has room to run.

The group of 10 spot bitcoin ETFs just notched its biggest three-day outflow since the products debuted on Jan. 11. Meanwhile, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is set for one of its worst weeks of the year after a 4% retreat. The token changed hands at $65,415 as of 6:57 a.m. Friday in Singapore.

Bitcoin “still looks overbought,” JPMorgan strategists said, renewing a February call for further declines leading up to April’s highly-anticipated halving event, which will lower the supply of newly minted Bitcoin from miners.

Sustained open interest in CME bitcoin futures along with declining ETF flows are significant bearish signals for the price of bitcoin, the strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Thursday.

“The pace of net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs has slowed markedly, with the past week seeing a significant outflow,” the strategists wrote. “This challenges the notion that the spot Bitcoin ETF flow picture is going to be characterized as a sustained one-way net inflow. As we approach the halving event this profit taking is more likely to continue, particularly against a positioning backdrop that still looks overbought despite the past week’s correction.”

Last month, the bank predicted that the price of bitcoin will drift down toward $42,000 after April as “Bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria subsides.”

Despite bitcoin setting a record of almost $73,798 on March 14, enthusiasm among retail traders may be waning, according to Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets.

“The fact that the rally didn’t really take off from the all-time high like before made many question the strength of the rally,” Aslam said. “The halving is almost here and if this event fails to really keep the momentum going, then it means that we are going to face serious retracement, which means that the price could fall below $50,000.”