Investor positioning in US technology stocks is so bullish that any sell-off could trigger a wider rout, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists.
Wagers on declines in tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures have been completely erased, leaving investors overwhelmingly expecting further gains. “The large consensus positioning is a risk that could amplify a turn in the market,” strategists led by Chris Montagu wrote in a note dated Feb. 5.
US stocks have rallied this year, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high for the first time since 2022, on optimism around a stronger-than-expected economy. Upbeat fourth-quarter earnings from tech mega-caps have also lifted sentiment.
Still, investors are turning more cautious after signals from policymakers that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as early as March. JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic said on Monday he doesn’t expect monetary easing to begin until mid-year.
Bullish trends in S&P 500 futures stalled last week, although positioning remains net-long, Montagu said.
Futures indicate stocks will build on Tuesday's rally.
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