JPMorgan weighs prediction market rules as regulators tighten oversight

JPMorgan Chase is reassessing how its 320,000 employees interact with fast-growing prediction markets, a move that could signal where corporate policies on this emerging asset class are headed.

The bank is reviewing its internal rules to determine whether it should spell out expectations for staff who bet on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, according to people familiar with the discussions who spoke with Barron's. For now, JPMorgan has no plans to build an in-house trading desk dedicated to prediction markets, those inside sources said.

As Barron's noted, any update from one of the world’s largest banks would likely ripple across Wall Street and the broader corporate world, where formal policies on prediction-market participation are still rare. When Barron’s asked all 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents earlier this year whether they had employee rules on prediction-market trading, only one company responded, declining to comment.

Prediction markets let users wager on outcomes ranging from interest-rate decisions to reality-show finales. For traders and research analysts at major banks, the platforms have turned into another windsock to gauge the direction of sentiment and probabilities in real time. But they also create new avenues for employees to profit from information they learn on the job, raising familiar questions about material nonpublic information in an unfamiliar context.

On Polymarket, for example, contracts let traders bet on when a private company might go public, whether a merger will close and how corporate earnings will stack up against analyst estimates. Those topics overlap directly with information that bankers, capital markets teams, and wealth professionals may encounter at work. 

(Could there be a time soon when RIA deal-watchers can put down bets on the next big mega-merger in 2026, for example? One can only speculate.)

JPMorgan’s existing code of conduct already draws a clear line: “You must never use privileged or confidential information for personal gain or tell, ‘tip,’ or share information you learned through work with others.” Any new guidance could simply clarify that this standard applies explicitly to prediction markets, one person familiar with the review said.

Regulators are starting to weigh in more forcefully. Suspicious trading on Polymarket tied to US military actions in Venezuela and Iran has prompted lawmakers to introduce bills that would ban elected officials and federal employees from using prediction markets.

Read more: Expect changes in investor behavior in 2026 as prediction markets expand

Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees event contracts tied to financial or economic outcomes, issued a fresh advisory on prediction markets. The staff guidance stresses that insider trading includes “misappropriation of confidential information in breach of a pre-existing duty of trust and confidence to the source of the information.”

The advisory also urges designated contract markets to pay particular attention to contracts that are easier to manipulate, such as those linked to specific sports events or actions by a small group of individuals.

Kalshi, which lists CFTC-regulated event contracts, says trading on workplace information would breach its policies. “Whether a person has a legal obligation or not is always going to be the centerpiece of determining insider trading cases,” Robert DeNault, Kalshi’s head of enforcement, previously told Barron’s.

Polymarket, which is not registered as a DCM, has taken a looser approach, often tagging seemingly informed bets on its social media feeds rather than blocking them outright.

For advisory firms and wealth managers, JPMorgan’s review and the CFTC’s latest guidance underscore the need to revisit codes of ethics, personal trading policies and supervision around employees’ off-platform activity. Even if prediction markets still sit at the fringes of client portfolios, they are increasingly part of the information ecosystem — and, in some cases, part of the compliance risk that firms will have to manage.

Prediction markets have also become a venue for Wall Street gossip. Among the higher-profile contracts drawing attention is a market speculating on who will ultimately succeed longtime JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon.