SHORT INTERESTS: TIPS, TRENDS, OBSERVATIONS

Brain surgery next?

Predicting market turns might be a task best left to rocket scientists. That’s the thinking behind a model soon to debut at the World Wide Web site of Market Timing Models Inc., a monthly newsletter in Roseville, Calif. The model uses artificial intelligence techniques like neural networks and genetic algorithms to analyze multiple factors at once. It’s the brainchild of “one shy Russian I’ll call Mr. P. who holds a Ph.D. in theoretical physics from the Joint Institute for Nuclear Physics in Moscow,” writes newsletter editor Richard Anderson in the June issue.

The mystery geek’s latest prognostication, which he’ll update weekly, is that a correction is imminent. Brace yourself for a sharp decline over the next 13 weeks and while you’re at it, the newsletter says, put about 5% to 10% of your portfolio in gold mining companies. The address is www.members.aol.com/mtmodels.

Moby Dick prospectuses

New York mutual fund firm Davis Selected Advisors LLP has set up “literature fulfillment operations,” in Tucson, Ariz., boasts a recent press release. Unfortunately, it’s not the library of classics, which is the impression the description gives. The new 12,000-square-foot facility will employ a staff of 20 to provide financial advisers with brochures, prospectuses, article reprints and annual reports. Not as fulfilling as Melville, but hey, he died a pauper

Nicer 401(k) neighborhood

The stock market has been good to future retirees. The average of Americans’ 410(k) accounts is $51,939, Boston-based Fidelity Investments says, based on a review of 4.6 million customers. While that won’t pay for a home on a golf course, it’s 82% better than in 1994, when the average balance was $28,509. The Fidelity data also show that 401(k) savers on average have increased their investments in stock and stock mutual funds to 75% of their holdings, from 61% in 1995.

For less taxing travel

A survival guide for international road warriors is available online from Arthur Andersen, the Economist Intelligence Unit and Craighead Publications. It’s designed to answer complicated tax questions, among other things, in 84 countries. Email [email protected].

Returns aren’t middling

Maybe size does matter after all. Quantitative Group of Funds of Boston recently released a study showing that mid-capitalization stocks outperformed small-capitalization stocks over 19 years. Examining 231 one-month periods ending in March, Quantitative found that the Russell mid-cap index outperformed the Russell 2000 small-cap index in 129 months, or 55.8% of the time. “The 11th commandment has always been ‘Invest in small companies to achieve better returns,’ ” says Robert von Pentz, who manages a $70 million small-cap and a $16 million mid-cap fund for Quantitative. “Well, this study certainly challenges that notion.”